June 2, 2023

The biggest analytical what-ifs heading into college football’s Week 4

College football is back. What if the Big Ten had a better weekend? What if Ohio State won at Penn State? What if Alabama lost to LSU?

The college football scores 2020 is a what-if. What if college football had started in 2020?

What if… we come out on top? Are we going to win the conference championship? Only a nonconference game lost? Is it possible for us to enter?

The game varies every week as the terrain evolves, and fans start running the scenarios as soon as the college football season begins. As a two-loss conference winner, what would happen to your favorite contender? That’s where the Allstate Playoff Predictor scenario tool comes in.

We simulated the remainder of the college football season 200,000 times to develop the tool. We filter down to just simulations that contain that scenario when you pick a scenario, such as Clemson losing to NC State this week but winning out after that, including the ACC title. Then, in each of those simulations, a simulated selection committee selects four teams for the playoffs based on factors that correspond with previous committee behavior. That’s how we came up with our playoff forecast.

I’ll get us started by breaking out some situations. But after that, you’re free to play with your own.

Table of Contents

Clemson loses against NC State, but goes on to win the rest of the ACC, including the title game.

We should point out right away that if Clemson loses this week, it loses control of its Atlantic Division destiny. However, if Clemson wins the rest of its planned games following a loss this weekend, the Tigers have a 78 percent probability of winning the division, since FPI doubts NC State’s ability to lose just one conference game.

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Let’s assume Clemson wins its division and the ACC title game despite the defeat to the Wolfpack. So, what’s next? The Tigers would still have a chance to become the first two-loss champion to make the playoffs, with a 38 percent probability of occurring, according to the playoff predictor.

Clemson is ranked sixth in FdPI and has a respectable strength of schedule (37th) this year, with its game versus Georgia playing a major role in it.

But how can you know whether the 38 percent is correct? For begin, consider what occurs elsewhere. That’s difficult if there are four unbeaten or one-loss winners elsewhere in the Power 5. If there’s a one-loss non-champion Georgia, for example? That would be difficult as well. In this scenario, the more instability there is — Oregon not being a conference champion, Georgia or Alabama struggling, a two-loss Big Ten champion — the better it is for Clemson.

The other element is standard deviation. Even if our simulated committee is presented with the identical situation 100 times, it will not choose the same four teams each time. Because we can’t predict what the committee will do in real life, these simulations help us estimate our chances. If it’s a close decision, the committee will sometimes choose Clemson and sometimes not.

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Texas A&M only had one defeat, against Alabama, and never makes it to the SEC title game.

It’s the SEC championship game as a warm-up for the playoffs, and the Crimson Tide have shown that it can be done. Is it possible for the Aggies to pull it off? It’s conceivable, with a 37 percent chance of succeeding.

However, there is a significant difference between Alabama and A&M in this regard. In contrast, if the two teams were reversed, Alabama would have a 93 percent probability of making the playoffs if they just lost to A&M and did not advance to the conference championship game.

Their team’s strength is what sets them apart. Or, to use committee jargon, the eye test. Alabama is the top team in the nation, according to FPI and nearly every AP poll voter. Even if Alabama were to lose one game the rest of the way, most people would still consider it to be the best or near to the greatest team in the nation. Even as a team that didn’t win its division, the Tide is undoubtedly a formidable contender.

The Aggies, who are now ranked 14th in the US, do not have that luxury. However, they would have a case based on their achievements: The strength of record rank of A&M is predicted to be 3.1 in this scenario. That is, without a doubt, a compelling reason to be in the playoffs.

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The Playoff Predictor gives the Fighting Irish a 42 percent chance of making the playoffs if they lose to Wisconsin on Saturday and then win out the rest of the way.

The first point to make is how improbable this is: despite the 3-0 start, Notre Dame’s season has been difficult so far, and as a consequence, FPI has demoted the Fighting Irish from seventh best in the nation in the preseason to 21st best currently. As a consequence, Notre Dame’s chances of finishing the regular season with less than two defeats are just 6%.

So we’re already talking about an improbable scenario. Notre Dame, on the other hand, would have a 42 percent chance if it could pull it off.

I’ll confess that when I saw that number, I was taken aback. On closer inspection, though, it made sense: the Fighting Irish are predicted to finish third in strength of record with an 11-1 record. When you include in the fact that Notre Dame is an independent, it’s treated a bit worse than conference winners but a little better than teams that didn’t win their league, then the 42 percent makes sense.

ESPN

Oregon prevails… until the Pac-12 title game, that is.

To begin with, what a blow it would be for the Pac-12 to finally seem to have a clear-cut, no-sweat playoff team just to fall short at the last minute. Oof. But I’m here to bring some good news to the conference: it wouldn’t be the end of the world. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Ducks still have a 63 percent probability of making the playoffs in this scenario!

Although Oregon’s resume isn’t as impressive as Texas A&M’s or Notre Dame’s in the prior situations, the Ducks are a superior club, ranking seventh in FPI. And it would have lost in a 13th game (which neither the Aggies nor the Fighting Irish played). As a result, the (proposed) committee sees Oregon as somewhat more favorable in this case, but it may still come down to what occurred elsewhere.

ESPN

The college football schedule is a what-if game. There are many different scenarios that could happen, but the most likely scenario is that Alabama will win against LSU.